My 2025 Oscar Winner Predictions

The 2025 Oscar Race is shaping up to be a pretty competitive one! Here are my picks for every category up for an Academy Award this year.

The Oscars are always a mix of politics, campaigning, and cultural relevance. So keep in mind that this list isn't just about my personal favorites, which would be wildly different for most categories, but about who I believe will win based on Academy trends, industry buzz, current events, and strategic campaigning. I make my picks to win my family Oscar pool and take home the bragging rights as the “movie guy”. Other than watching a lot of movies, I have been involved in Oscar pools since I was about 12, so I’ve been through a few awards seasons! If you want some help to win your pool or place a few fun bets (be responsible!) check out my thoughts!

Best Picture – Anora

Sean Baker is simply one of the best filmmakers working today. Anora is beautifully shot, well-written, and expertly edited, and all by Baker. It is crazy what he can do. It’s also a low-budget film that delivers a powerful story, and I think the Academy will want to reward that. Conclave is probably the closest competitor, but Anora feels like the most Oscar-worthy pick.

Best Actor – Adrien Brody, The Brutalist

The Academy loves a repeat winner, and Brody has all the momentum. The Brutalist is an Oscar-friendly film, and A24 certainly knows how to campaign. They have become quite the major player in recent awards seasons. While I think Sebastian Stan gave the best overall performance, playing Trump is a tough sell right now, and I don’t think The Academy will touch that. Ralph Fiennes and Timothée Chalamet are contenders, especially after Chalamet won the SAG, but Brody seems locked in.

Best Actress – Demi Moore, The Substance

The Academy loves a comeback, and Moore delivers a powerhouse performance as Elizabeth Sparkle. She deserves the award for the amount of makeup work she had to sit through alone, but she also has that great story and a long lasting campaign with a huge cultural impact. The Substance is one of my favorite films of the year, and I’d be disappointed if she doesn’t win. With a strong campaign and a lot of other awards under her belt, she seems like a lock.

Best Supporting Actor – Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

This is an easy pick. Culkin delivers a heartfelt performance in a small, powerful film. He was incredible, and the role plays into themes of mental health, family, and trauma in a way that resonates. I had him pegged as the winner months ago when I first saw A Real Pain and nothing has changed my mind since. Congrats Kieran, you earned it.

Best Supporting Actress – Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez

I don’t agree with this one, but it seems inevitable. Emilia Perez is not a good movie, and I think it does more harm than good for the topic it covers. But with 13 nominations, the Academy will likely want to give it something, and this is the easiest category for them to justify. I personally would have given this to Isabella Rossellini or Ariana Grande, who were both far more entertaining in much better films, but this almost seems like as big of a lock as Culkin. Why, I don’t know, but its hard to complain about Zoe Saldana. She just got put in a bad film and a bad situation.

Best Director – Sean Baker, Anora

Baker deserves this. He writes, directs, and edits his films, and Anora has had a long life with a great campaign. Coralie Fargeat (The Substance) would be a fantastic surprise and would make me happy, but I think Baker has this in the bag. If Anora is going to win Best Picture, Baker needs to win this award. If he doesn’t, I would expect a different pick for Picture to win.

Best Original Screenplay – A Real Pain

This is a close one between A Real Pain, Anora, and The Substance. However, Jesse Eisenberg’s screenplay is brilliantly written, full of strong character moments and monologues. It feels like watching a book, if that make sense, in the way that it so expertly develops characters in such a short runtime. Eisenberg also won the Writer’s Guild, which is a huge step towards the Oscar. If Anora wins Best Picture, it might take this as well, but I’m going with A Real Pain.

Best Adapted Screenplay – Conclave

This film is all about dialogue and complex themes, and it adapts a tricky book in a masterful way. It so easily could have been a boring film, or fell flat in the way it adapted the book to the screen, but it remained extremely compelling throughout the entire runtime. I never expected that I would find myself enjoying a film about picking the next Pope, but here we are. It’s a true testament to the writing and storytelling. The Nickel Boys is another good contender, but Conclave stands out.

Best International Feature – I’m Still Here

I’m firmly against Emilia Perez winning this. A French film about a Mexican drug cartel, directed by someone with negative views on Mexico, shouldn’t win this category. I’m Still Here is the winner in a category full of great films, other than Perez. If you haven’t seen the other nominees, I recommend them!

Best Documentary Feature – No Other Land

While The Porcelain War covers Ukraine, I don’t think the Academy will reward the same topic that it recently awarded last year with 20 Days in Mariupol. I think No Other Land will resonate more with voters given the ongoing Palestine conflict and the film’s impact. The Academy loves to pick the hottest political topic and after the last 18 months in the Middle East, this seems like a no-brainer. Plus, it is actually a great film that is getting a ton of buzz and selling tickets in a way that documentaries rarely do.

Best Animated Feature – The Wild Robot

It’s nice when something other than Disney/Pixar wins. As great as they are, they feel like they are always the default winner. The Wild Robot is the best of the bunch here and the Academy has given a lot of love to Dreamworks in the past. I wouldn’t be upset if Flow takes it, given the incredible story behind its production (check that out if you haven’t yet) but I think The Wild Robot has all the momentum.

Best Cinematography – Nosferatu

This is a close call between Nosferatu and The Brutalist, but I give the edge to Nosferatu. Shooting a movie lit largely by candlelight is incredibly difficult, and the film delivers some truly iconic visuals. The opening of the gate’s to Count Orlok’s castle, the vampire’s hand stretching across the city, the shadow work in the curtains of the bedroom - it is hard to argue with the way this film was shot. Robert Eggers deserves some awards recognition for this film, and this is the category where I think Nosferatu picks up a win for the great work by Jarin Blaschke.

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Quick Picks for the Other Categories:

• Production Design – Wicked

• Film Editing – Conclave

• Costume Design – Wicked

• Makeup & Hairstyling – The Substance

• Original Score – The Brutalist

• Original Song – The Journey (Diane Warren – 16 nominations, no wins, it’s time!)

• Documentary Short – I Am Ready, Warden

• Live Action Short – Anuja

• Animated Short – Magic Candies

• Best Sound – Dune: Part Two

• Best Visual Effects – Dune: Part Two

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That’s my list! Let me know your picks in the comments, and feel free to come back after the ceremony to roast me if I did poorly. I’m hoping to win my family’s Oscar pool this year, so I really focused on what I think will win rather than just what I personally love. I will report back on social media after the show. It’s a tricky year with a lot of close categories, but I feel good about these choices!